Kelly, Senators handle Oilers

Hockey Betting Lines

03/10/2010 - Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chris Kelly registered a goal and an assist to lead the Ottawa Senators to a 4-1 win over the Edmonton Oilers at Rexall Place.

Mike Fisher, Matt Cullen and Milan Michalek also scored for the Senators, who opened their three-game Western Canada road trip by putting the brakes on a three-game winless skid. Brian Elliott made 18 saves in the victory.

Fernando Pisani scored the only goal for the Oilers, who saw their brief two- game win streak halted and lost for the eighth time in their last 11 games overall.

Jeff Deslauriers allowed four goals on 39 shots in the loss.

The Oilers opened the scoring at the 4:27 mark of the second period. Aaron Johnson's shot from above the left circle was saved by Elliott, but the rebound sat loose in front before Pisani cut across the top of the crease and punched home the rebound from near the left post.

With 3:42 to play in the middle stanza, the visitors knotted the contest on Kelly's 12th goal of the season. He held control of the puck behind the goal line to the right of the net and he banked the puck off the back of the pad of Deslauriers and into the back of the cage.

Cullen's power-play goal at the 8:24 mark of the third proved to be the eventual game-winner. Erik Karlsson passed from the left point across the slot for Cullen, whose blazing one-timer from the right circle lit the lamp with the help of a screen in front by Jason Spezza.

Less than two minutes later, Fisher's 21st tally of the season gave the visitors a 3-1 edge. Strong forechecking deep in the Ottawa offensive zone kept the pressure on the Oilers, who eventually committed a turnover and the puck landed on the stick of Fisher. From the inner rim of the right circle, Fisher's wrist shot beat Deslauriers near the midpoint of the stanza.

Only eight seconds after Ryan Whitney went to the penalty box for a cross- checking minor, the Sens cashed in and Michalek's 22nd tally of 2009-10 capped the scoring.

Game Notes

Ottawa defenseman Filip Kuba missed his third consecutive game with a lower- body injury...The Sens have now defeated the Oilers six straight times...Mike Comrie of Edmonton failed to score on a penalty shot in the first period...The Senators were 2-for-9 on the power play, while the hosts were scoreless on their four chances with the extra skater...Daniel Alfredsson had three assists for Ottawa.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.